Distinguished fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Middle East Programs
The Gulf diversifies its defense ties
US security cooperation remains indispensable for allied and partner states in Europe and the Gulf, but the United States’ role as security guarantor is shifting to a role of security integrator. Despite US defense technology remaining the standard for interoperability, Gulf countries are actively looking to diversify security cooperation relationships and defense capabilities.
At the start of Operation Epic Fury, the significant burn rate of expensive advanced munitions alarmed national security officials in the US, Israel, and Gulf states. Acutely aware of the need to quickly bolster their integrated air and missile defense, by April Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates had each signed deals with Ukraine, to access battlefield-tested technologies for intercepting drones that cost a fraction of the high-end air defense systems provided by the US. At the same time, the United Kingdom announced cooperation with Kuwait on joint drone development and advanced military technologies. Just as the necessity of air defense drove Ukrainians to innovate, it drove the Gulf states to diversify their security relationships—and the new trilateral mutual defense agreement between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan is the latest instance.
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via REUTERS
Defense and security
Mecca defense pact is the latest example of the Gulf diversifying its defense ties
On Friday in Mecca, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan signed a joint defense agreement that treats an armed attack on any signatory as an attack on all three, though the statement left the specific obligations undefined, and Ankara stressed the pact targets no particular country. It lands days after Tehran warned Gulf capitals it would strike their energy and water infrastructure unless they steered US President Donald Trump back toward negotiations. Two days after the signing, Houthi forces again struck Saudi Aramco’s Jazan refinery, pushing the restart date for the facility—which can produce 400,000 barrels per day—to August 30.
Expert take
Joseph Zacks
Nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative
“I’m very skeptical about the trilateral agreement’s implementation. If there are teeth to this agreement, look to see if Turkey and Pakistan come to Saudi Arabia’s defense should there be a continuation or escalation in Houthi attacks against Saudi Arabia. Despite the existing 2025 Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, Pakistan did not appear to contribute to Saudi Arabia’s defense when Iran and its proxies targeted it following the outbreak of the February 2026 regional conflict. I am doubtful that Turkey and Saudi Arabia would defend Pakistan militarily should hostilities erupt between it and India.”
Energy
Restoring supply is not restoring confidence
Production by members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries climbed 1.17 million barrels per day in July to 19.85 million, a Reuters survey found, as Gulf members restored barrels shut in by the war though volumes remain far below quotas. The recovery hasn’t calmed markets. The prices of Brent and West Texas Intermediate both settled about 5 percent higher on Monday, their sharpest gain since July 29, after Washington and Tehran traded compensation demands. Iran says it is close to a deal with Oman on new shipping lanes, but insists the US lift sanctions and drop military threats before the strait reopens.
Expert take
Maisoon H. Kafafy
Senior adviser at the Atlantic Council’s Middle East Programs
“The July recovery restores barrels without restoring confidence. Prices are responding to the political terms of transit as much as to physical supply, and Iran’s conditions for reopening the new shipping lanes agreed with Oman signal an intent to convert the strait’s geography into durable bargaining leverage. Until passage through Hormuz rests on international guarantees rather than Tehran’s discretion, every production gain remains hostage to the next round of demands.”
Diplomacy
After Ceuta, the EU is mending fences
The EU is looking to de-escalate a tense situation between Spain and Italy that has led to uncertainty at European borders during peak tourism season. After tens of thousands of migrants crossed from Morocco into the Spanish exclave of Ceuta in late July, Rome imposed border controls on travelers arriving from Spain. Madrid then retaliated with similar measures. Meanwhile, twenty-two EU members reaffirmed the need to strengthen external borders, and EU tech commissioner Henna Virkkunen is working with Meta and TikTok to prevent the spread of false information online that may have spurred on the sudden influx of migrants.
Expert take
Valbona Zeneli
Nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center
“This dispute carries real economic cost, putting a €65 billion trade and mobility relationship at risk, with 250 flights a day affected at the peak of summer travel. At the European level, it has reopened debate over the Schengen agreement’s resilience and free movement itself. More generally, it has opened a debate on migration, human rights, European responses, and internal cohesion. That is why diplomatic resolution is urgent; as the EU mediates, trust among member states remains the Union’s most valuable asset, and preserving it should take priority.”
Economy
To squeeze Iran, the US is returning to economic pressure
On Monday, Trump announced a planned return to economic pressure in hopes of forcing Iran to capitulate. The specific financial levers the White House plans to pull remain unknown. But in April, when the US Treasury Department launched what it called the “financial equivalent” of the war’s first six weeks of bombing, Washington warned entities in the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Hong Kong, and elsewhere that they were at risk of secondary sanctions for doing business with Iran.
Launched in September 2025, the Europe Gulf Forum is a platform bringing together the highest level of political and business leadership in Europe and the Gulf to advance greater strategic and economic engagement between the two regions.
