Wednesday, May 20, 2026

Katherine Golden, AC Intel Anchor

Nearly fifty million Americans are about to hit the road for their Memorial Day travel, where they’ll confront gas prices above $4.50 per gallon. For those hoping the end of the price surge is near, Sultan Al Jaber, the head of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), has disappointing news.

“Even if this conflict [with Iran] ends tomorrow,” he said today at an Atlantic Council Front Page event, “full flows will not return before the first or even second quarter of 2027.”

Speaking with RBC Capital Markets’ Helima Croft, Al Jaber—who also serves as the UAE’s minister of industry and advanced technology—said that the war has highlighted how “too much of the world’s energy still moves through too few chokepoints.” That lesson, he explained, is part of the thinking behind ADNOC’s push to build a new West-East pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. “Today it’s already almost 50 percent complete, and we are accelerating its delivery toward 2027,” he noted, generating headlines around the world.

But even as this new project gets underway, Al Jaber is worried about existing infrastructure that Iran continues to hammer with drones and missiles. Your AC Intel starts there.

Iran is not just targeting infrastructure—it’s “targeting our way of life” 

Speaking just a few days after a drone attack near the UAE’s Barakah power plant, Al Jaber blamed the “terrorist act” on Iran or its proxies, saying that it showed a “criminal disregard for civilian lives.”  

A new phase of US policy on Cuba has officially begun

In our expert Q&A on the indictment of former Cuban President Raúl Castro today, Jason Marczak, who leads our Latin America work, explains that the charges are “a clear signal to the Cubans to play ball” or else risk Castro’s extraction and, likely, “a surge of popular demand for change.” 

Ukraine is winning the drone war against Russia

Letting us in on Ukraine’s efforts to ramp up its mid-range strikes and turn the tide in the drone war, researcher David Kirichenko argues that “Ukraine looks capable of retaining the initiative,” thanks to its expanding domestic drone production and innovative spirit. 

Read our Dispatches

Reports from the front lines of global policy—by the experts shaping it.

Don’t let Moscow’s fearmongering win in Europe

Former Lithuanian defense official Justina Budginaite-Froehly warns that Russia is “jamming” Ukrainian drones and sending them over Baltic airspace to erode support for Kyiv. Her message for these Baltic countries: “harden” their airspace, particularly with counter-drone capabilities.

Turkey should have a role in Europe’s nuclear deterrence

Former Turkish Ambassador to NATO Mehmet Fatih Ceylan and researcher Ece Şolendil argue that Turkey’s “deliberate exclusion” from discussions about Europe’s nuclear deterrence will only make it harder to “achieve credibility” in the face of threats from the Middle East, Russia, and beyond.

FUTURE INTEL

Who rules Chechnya next?

Launching the latest report in our Russia Tomorrow series, regional experts examine four scenarios for what could unfold next in Chechnya as warlord Ramzan Kadyrov faces new stresses to his grip on power. 

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