Jon Wilks

Distinguished fellow at the Transatlantic Project in the Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center

  Opportunity and constraint in the growth of Europe-Gulf defense ties

There has been an uptick in geopolitical dialogue between Europe and the Gulf in recent months. But it remains to be seen whether it will lead to rapid growth in defense and security partnerships, or whether the constraints on both sides limit progress to something slower and more incremental.

A major constraint is Europe’s inevitable prioritization of building NATO capabilities and supporting Ukraine against Russia. While European defense budgets are increasing, France and the United Kingdom are fiscally constrained and unwilling to sustain major offensive military deployments in the Gulf region.

To mitigate this, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries could offer markedly increased funding of their defense partnerships with Europe—a growing trend over the past decade. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar in particular have hosted growing numbers of defense partnerships with a wide variety of European companies, alongside direct investments in Europe's largest defense sectors. Long established suppliers such as France, Italy, and the UK may well be matched by Germany as it accelerates the build-up of its armed forces and liberalizes its arms export policies. GCC countries will want these partnerships to expand from conventional platforms such as ships and fighter aircraft, to include unmanned aerial vehicles and the capabilities to counter them, plus digital technologies.

None of this will change the GCC’s primary dependence on the United States for military support and supply.

Growth is likely to be incremental, built on existing programs and traditional suppliers, and constrained by the ongoing war in Ukraine. But over the next decade, as Europe rearms and middle powers develop greater interest in strategic cooperation, defense partnerships will likely expand, allowing GCC countries to build their defense industries and European suppliers to achieve economies of scale.

THE LATEST

Abaca Press via REUTERS

Defense and security

Ukraine hits Iranian ship carrying drone parts for Russia 

Ukrainian forces struck an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea on Saturday that the Ukrainian ambassador to Israel said was carrying drone parts and military equipment for Russia. Iran has been a key supplier of matériel to Russia, and Kyiv has accused the Islamic Republic of complicity in drone attacks which have killed hundreds of Ukrainian civilians. Iran, which stated that one sailor was killed and several others were injured, said that it has never intervened in the war in Ukraine and threatened retaliation. In an X post on Monday, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha dismissed Iran’s threats and called Iran a direct accomplice to the Russian invasion.

Expert take

Ian Brzezinski

Resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security 

“Iran has been supporting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine for years now with military equipment and parts, including its Shahed drone—even building a Shahed drone factory in Tatarstan. Kyiv’s recent strike against an Iranian ship in the Caspian Sea ferrying such equipment to Russia should make clear to the Trump administration that Kyiv and the United States are actually on the same side in the same battle against this terrorist alliance.”

Energy

 ADNOC advances major gas expansion amid Gulf supply risks  

Abu Dhabi National Oil Company approved a $6.2 billion investment to develop Abu Dhabi’s Umm Shaif Gas Cap alongside TotalEnergies, Eni, and China National Petroleum Company. The project is expected to produce more than 600 million cubic feet of gas per day by 2030 (nearly 10 percent of the UAE’s consumption) supporting domestic demand and the country’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) portfolio. The investment comes as Asian and European LNG buyers prepare to demand lower prices from Qatar and the UAE. Meanwhile, European gas storage stood at 54 percent, significantly below the five-year average and at its second-lowest level in fifteen years, prompting Equinor’s chief executive officer to warn that the continent was unlikely to reach its 80 percent target before winter amid market tightness and increased competition from Asian LNG buyers.

Expert take

Ariel Ezrahi

Nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Middle East Program

“We will likely see additional such projects and alarming storage numbers in the near and medium term for as long as the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved. Two things to point out in this regard: Increasing supply won’t be enough if it’s not coupled with alternative export routes to bypass the Strait of Hormuz; increasing supply should also be part of a long-term energy transition which balances energy demand with a gradual transition away from fossil fuels to cleaner greener fuels.”

Economy

New Trump tariffs to hit the EU and the Gulf 

Following a Section 301 investigation into trade practices relying on forced labor, the Trump administration has placed a 12.5 percent tariff on the six Gulf countries and abided by the Turnberry US-EU trade deal in limiting new tariffs to 10 percent. For Europe, the announcement is a victory, with the 2025 trade deal standing, but any celebrations may be short-lived as US President Donald Trump issues new threats in relation to Brussels’ recent decision to fine Google.  

Expert take

L. Daniel Mullaney

Nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council's Europe Center and GeoEconomics Center 

“The EU’s longtime angst and anger over US tariff rates may now be settling down, but the hard work of addressing non-tariff barriers to trade, including digital, is off to a rough start, with harsh threats from the administration. The Gulf countries, meanwhile—at least with respect to tariffs and trade—continue along the steady path of engagement they have adopted from the beginning. If the EU is looking for allies to push back against the administration's approach to trade—akin to Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's middle power alliance—it is unlikely to find them in the Gulf. By contrast, both the EU and Gulf will increasingly see the value of bolstering their trade integration in the face of unpredictable market access in the United States, which could lead to enhanced bilateral trade arrangements.” 

Diplomacy

Saudi Arabia eyes a nuclear future

Saudi Arabia and the United States have reached an agreement to allow the transfer of US nuclear capabilities to the Gulf country, providing the US preferential access while preventing Russia or China from developing Saudi Arabia’s nuclear infrastructure. However, concerns over nuclear proliferation emerged as the deal may open the door to Saudi Arabia enriching uranium locally instead of importing nuclear fuel as has been standard with previous similar deals. With the US waging war in Iran over concerns about its nuclear capabilities, questions have emerged about US nonproliferation priorities and the broader risk of a regional arms race.

Launched in September 2025, the Europe Gulf Forum is a platform bringing together the highest level of political and business leadership in Europe and the Gulf to advance greater strategic and economic engagement between the two regions.