Torrey Taussig

Director of and a senior fellow at the Transatlantic Security Initiative in the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security

NATO survives the Ankara Summit, but questions of trust remain 

Last week, allied leaders met in Ankara, Turkey, for the annual NATO summit. Secretary General Mark Rutte had three primary objectives on the agenda.

The first was to demonstrate that the alliance has made significant progress on defense spending—and here, the secretary general has a positive story to tell. European and Canadian allies increased spending by 20 percent in the last year alone, increasing defense expenditure by over $140 billion (in nominal terms).

The second objective was to show that allies are turning this new spending into real capabilities, a central pillar of the summit. Day one featured a major defense industry forum attended by allied heads of state and ministers, NATO leadership, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and industry CEOs. Allied officials signed $50 billion in new contracts with industry, and the secretary general launched three new initiatives to streamline engagement with industry and boost production: NATO Drone Edge, NATO's Front Door, and NATO Engine.

The third objective was to demonstrate sustained financial and military commitment to Ukraine—and here, Zelenskyy emerged as the summit's clear winner. NATO pledged €70 billion in military equipment, assistance, and training for Ukraine, US President Donald Trump issued his support for Ukraine's long-range strikes into Russia, and announced that the US would help Ukraine build its own Patriot missiles. While many details must be worked out, the summit highlighted Ukraine's continued momentum both on the battlefield and with the Trump administration. It also highlighted how much Europe has to gain from Ukrainian innovation and expertise in military technology.

Meanwhile, Trump arrived in Ankara as the ceasefire deal with Iran unraveled. Trump was openly frustrated with certain European allies for not providing enough support to US operations in Iran. He also continued to claim that the United States should control Greenland and berated Europeans for not spending enough on defense. The summit ultimately landed in a more positive place, with a strong summit communiqué and a closing press conference from the president that highlighted NATO unity. That said, allies know the president they are dealing with and are stepping up to provide for their own defenses and adjust to a reality in which the United States may not be counted on in a military contingency. Fortunately, the United States did not preview any additional force posture changes in Ankara—but allies await a force posture review that could see more changes come to the European theater. The lack of clarity and underlying trust in US commitment and engagement will continue to have ramifications for allied deterrence in the months ahead.

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via REUTERS 

Diplomacy

NATO Summit provides some clarity in transatlantic relations  

After a complicated year for the transatlantic alliance, NATO members met in Ankara on July 7-8 to consider next steps to strengthen European security, making progress or clarifying a number of issues. Among tangible deliverables, allies announced $50 billion in new procurements that will bolster the transatlantic defense industry and doubled down on support for Ukraine, highlighting a €70 billion commitment for military aid. On a political level, the summit demonstrated continued will to keep the alliance alive by reaffirming Article 5—a symbolic but significant accomplishment in a year rife with uncertainty amid US actions on Greenland and Iran.  

Expert take

James J. Townsend Jr.

Senior advisor in the Scowcroft Center’s Transatlantic Security Initiative

“On a political level, alliance unity was maintained, as European allies embraced the transfer of more responsibility for Europe's defense and the US agreed to a communiqué that: reaffirmed ‘our ironclad commitment to our collective defense under Article 5 of the Washington treaty,’ recognized Russia as the ‘long term threat to Euro-Atlantic security,’ and stated that allies ‘stand united in our unwavering support for Ukraine in defending its freedom, sovereignty and territorial integrity.’  But it was a tale of two cities as well, with harsh words for some allies expressed initially by the US president, only to be replaced by the same president at the summit's end, saying there was love and 'great unity' in the room.  It was a good note to end on.”

Defense and security

Iran and its proxies strike Gulf nations as GCC reaffirms collective defense

A breakdown in peace negotiations between the US and Iran has seen Iran strike targets in Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, and Oman while the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen attack Saudi Arabia. These attacks come as Iran seeks to assert its control over the Strait of Hormuz, contrary to US wishes, and as Trump has publicly repudiated a deal with Iran and reimposed a blockade on Iran. The Gulf Cooperation Council condemned the attacks by Iran, stating that member nations hold Iran fully responsible for the strikes and called for all necessary measures to achieve a permanent and unconditional cessation of Iranian hostilities, the reopening of the strait, and a rejection of any unilateral and illegal arrangements.

Expert take

Daniel B. Shapiro

Distinguished fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative

“Gulf nations have every reason to want to avoid an escalation of US strikes on Iranian infrastructure, as it will almost certainly mean Iranian strikes on their infrastructure. Diplomatic efforts should focus on the imperative of getting the Strait of Hormuz open with a mutual deescalation, with other nuclear and sanctions issues postponed to a later phase.”

Energy

 Europe's energy crunch deepens as strikes escalate and jet fuel stocks run low 

US-Iran escalation is darkening the outlook for Europe's energy supply. A third night of US strikes hit Iran; Tehran retaliated against regional allies, struck two tankers, and hit two United Arab Emirates (UAE) vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, killing a crew member. A renewed US naval blockade sent oil prices up over 9 percent, and fresh Saudi-Houthi strikes suggest Bab el Mandeb could be at risk of joining the conflagration. Most acutely for Europe, the continent is left with less than thirty days of demand cover for depleted jet fuel stocks as the fighting intensifies.

Meanwhile, the European Union (EU) is weighing its own regulatory risks and opportunities for energy security in the long-term. The International Energy Agency warns new EU methane rules, set for January 2027, could shrink legally importable crude by over 50 percent, raising costs before governments are ready to enforce them. Separately, a new EU agreement among member states, lenders, and energy producers aims to expand renewable energy storage to 200 GW by 2030, to better capture excess wind and solar during peak times for later use.

Expert take

Joseph Webster

Senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center

“Energy risks are rising again as the US-Iran war resumes and Trump warns of attacks on Iranian energy and electricity infrastructure, which would likely send the conflict spiraling. If the war returns in force, the world could soon enter the epochal energy crisis it thought it had escaped.” 

Economy

Ireland steps into EU presidency with economic challenges ahead

Ireland took over the rotating EU Council presidency on July 1, inheriting an economy strained by the war in the Gulf and slowing growth in the Eurozone. Dublin has placed competitiveness at the center of its six-month term aiming to further the “One Europe, One Market” roadmap by deepening the single market, cutting regulatory burdens, and channeling more European savings into investments. But rising defense and energy spending put Europe in a bind as it looks to spend more on competitiveness projects, especially with the EU in the midst of negotiating its 2028-2034 budget.    

Expert take

James Batchik

Deputy director at the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center

“Ireland’s EU presidency comes at an equally critical and difficult time. Responsible for coordinating positions among member states, Ireland will need to balance a number of competing priorities, including the bloc’s competitiveness drive, diversification efforts, and security push—not to mention the EU’s long-term budget and relations with the United States—all of which are to a significant degree impacted by the developments in the Gulf. Further flashes in the region highlight the importance of making progress on all these files over the coming six months of Dublin’s presidency.”   

Launched in September 2025, the Europe Gulf Forum is a platform bringing together the highest level of political and business leadership in Europe and the Gulf to advance greater strategic and economic engagement between the two regions.